Emerging risks
Each year, Línea Directa conducts a review of potential emerging risks to anticipate the impact they may have on its business activities.
In 2023, the company identified two main emerging risks and developed a mitigation plan to reduce their potential effect on the company’s operations.
The main risks the company will face over the next three years are related to the exponential development of Artificial Intelligence, autonomous vehicles, and demographic aging.
The potential risk of the sudden and exponential development of AI had already been identified among emerging risks, although it requires continued attention due to its rapid evolution.
However, risks related to autonomous vehicles and population aging are two newly identified risks, whose potential impact is long-term and currently unknown, but significant. Moreover, these risks are external to the company and affect it due to changes in the context in which it operates. They have recently been identified and added to the risk management mechanisms for monitoring and evaluation.
Below is a table with the description, impact, and mitigation actions, identifying specific mitigation measures for Línea Directa. In 2024, these risks were reviewed and certain aspects were refined to better define their potential impact.
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| Emerging risk 1 |
| Emerging risk 2 |
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| Autonomous Vehicles |
| Population Aging |
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Category |
| Environmental, social and technological |
| Social and economic |
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Description |
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The commercialization of autonomous vehicles is an emerging future trend. An autonomous vehicle is capable of performing all driving functions from origin to destination without any human intervention. The use of such vehicles introduces accident risks that are currently unknown to both the company and the industry, as well as uncertainties regarding the insurance coverage responsibilities of an insurer in a market increasingly oriented toward sustainable and technological mobility
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The proportion of elderly people has increased by 21% in 2020 for those over 65, and by 3.4% for those over 80—nearly doubling in two decades. In Spain, the driver’s license census from the Directorate-General for Traffic (DGT) shows that there are over 27 million drivers, nearly 16% of whom are over 65. Furthermore, of the 1,273 traffic fatalities on interurban roads in 2022, 283 were over 65. In urban areas, of the 473 fatalities, 184 were also over 65, representing 39% of the total—the largest victim group. Therefore, population aging, loss of purchasing power, and stricter driving regulations represent a risk with unknown long-term behavior. As a result, insurance demand may decrease as the proportion of this age group increases, although the emergence of autonomous driving may help mitigate this risk. Finally, population aging—combined with declining birth rates and increased life expectancy—has a significant effect on the financial sustainability of public pension systems and may impact insurance marketing in various ways.
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Impact | Additionally, commercial-scale autonomous drone freight transport is expected to reach technological maturity. It is anticipated to mature within a decade and generate a significant economic impact, estimated between $31 billion and $46 billion annually in the U.S. GDP by 2026 Línea Directa could be affected by this emerging risk, as it impacts a core business line. Although the impact would be gradual.
| The most significant effects observed from this risk include:
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Mitigating actions | The actions Línea Directa is taking to mitigate these risks are as follows:
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| The actions Línea Directa is taking to mitigate the situation include:
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